HOUSTON – The Gulf Coast and Southeast are bracing for a multiday wet-weather event that will deliver the heaviest precipitation of the year, with many communities picking up 3-5 inches of rain and isolated areas seeing even more.
According to the FOX Forecast Center, the same weather pattern that is poised to help deliver a warmup through much of the Lower 48 will allow for moisture to build up along the Gulf Coast, leading to an eventual flash flood threat.
The highest chances of rainfall will occur between Sunday and Thursday, but not every hour of every day will be wet.
Computer forecast models show at least three plumes of moisture developing at the end of the weekend and through the workweek, which will be the main focus of the heavy rainfall.
How much rain will fall in the Southeast and Gulf Coast by the end of the week?
According to the FOX Forecast Center, a wide swath of the Gulf Coast and Southeast could pick up 3-5 inches of rainfall, with isolated areas approaching 10 inches.
As accumulations mount, so will the potential for flash flooding, which will likely require watches and warnings to be issued during the workweek.
Many of the communities that stand to see rainfall are dealing with a precipitation deficit, so the rainfall could be welcome news.
Winter in rearview mirror
With the exception of light freezing rain where the precipitation meets the cold air in the Plains and mid-Mississippi Valley at the start of the event, the precipitation will fall in the liquid variety due to warming temperatures.
Yet ice can form at temperatures above freezing if colder air exists closer to the ground level.
Temperatures are expected to moderate through the workweek, with highs reaching the 60s and 70s for many in the South.
Where the greatest extent of cloud cover and rain exists, there will be a tendency for temperatures to remain cooler compared to communities that will get much more sunshine. Even with the clouds, highs and lows are still expected to remain above average for the foreseeable future.